SIKESTON -- This week's warmer-than-average temperatures and tornadic activity earlier this month are definitely unusual but not enough to indicate a severe storm season this year, experts say.
"Spring is our most active time for severe weather because that's the transitional time for weather patterns," David Humphrey, lead meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Paducah, Ky.
In the spring there's a stable cold air regime, and in the summer there's a hot air regime, Humphrey said. Right about now it's in-between times, transitioning from cold to hot, which ultimately leads to the fuel needed for storms, he said.
Since Saturday the Southeast Missouri region has witnessed record or near record highs with temperatures in the low 80s and lows in the mid and upper 50s.
"Tuesday will be the fourth and probably last day of at least near record warmth, but we will continue to be above normal for this weekend," Humphrey said.
Normal highs this time of year are in the low 60s and lows are in the low 40s, Humphrey said. Temperatures will stay above normal throughout the week with a cold front coming through by Friday night or Saturday, he said. "After the front ushers through, it'll give us more seasonably normal air from Sunday through Wednesday, and we should be back into the 60s and 40s," Humphrey said.
So far this year eight tornadoes have crossed Missouri -- seven on Feb. 28 and one on March 1.
"It was unusual to see tornadoes up this far north and that weather pattern," said Pat Guinan, climatologist for the University of Missouri Extension. "Right now we are witnessing unusually warm temperatures. But of more concern with this warm spell is vegetation that has taken off because now we're concerned about freezing temperatures."
Guinan noted the average date of the last expected spring frost in Scott, New Madrid, Mississippi and Stoddard counties is April 5.
"We are expecting severe weather (this year), and I don't know if it will be worse than in the past," said Joe Burton, director of Scott County Emergency Management Agency.
Burton said he thinks the worst time for severe weather in the area is between mid-April and May 1.
"But that doesn't mean we won't have it right now," Burton said.
Historically, Missouri sees 70 percent of its tornadoes from March to June; 50 percent typically happen in April and May, Guinan said.
In an average year, 30 tornadoes cross the state, but 2006 was a record breaker with 102 tornadoes.
"We surpassed the annual average in one day," Guinan said, when 38 tornadoes were recorded on March 12.
Last year broke the record set in 2003 when Missouri had 84 tornadoes. In May 2003, storm conditions were unstable over Missouri for several days, causing 75 tornadoes across the state.
Since 1999, an above-average number of tornadoes have been recorded in six of the last eight years. The fewest number of tornadoes in that period was 25, recorded in 2000.
But local residents shouldn't worry. Burton said national weather service officials work well with local emergency management officials.
"Once the Oklahoma Storm Prediction Center puts us in a moderate risk area, the National Weather Service in Paducah has a conference call with all the emergency managers in the affected area. They give us percentages and how they feel the weather will go," Burton said.
Local emergency officials and weather spotters then react accordingly. In the meantime, it's too early to predict what the early activity and heat mean, Burton said.
"My personal opinion is it seems like storms are tracking a little different -- maybe further north or south than normal," Burton said. "... Basically, all we can do is wait."