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Do we drive the polls or do polls drive us?
Wednesday, October 29, 2014
Why do the polls show that next week's all-important mid-term elections remain extremely close?
By just about any measure, the critical Senatorial match-ups should be a slam dunk for the Republicans, especially given the unpopularity of the administration.
But the polls, if they are to be believed, don't reflect this GOP surge or wave that has long been predicted.
Granted, with less than a week before Election Day, the Republicans are in a strong position in the critical states where the outcome will help determine the balance of power in Washington, D.C.
Yet the outcome is far from a guarantee.
I can only assume that the polarization among the electorate is so entrenched and so equally divided that we may not know the final outcome for weeks.
I have opined before that elections are often won or lost on the final weekend before Election Day.
I attribute that to a late surge of largely low information voters who finally wake up to the fact that an election is upon us.
But that is an opinion based on nothing more than that ever-popular gut reaction.
When Democratic senators who vote with the administration 95 percent of the time are running hard and fast to distance themselves from the White House, you would think their election chances are greatly lowered.
But the polls tell us otherwise.
There are so many divisions in this great nation. Some could argue that we have always been a divided nation. But it's equally as easy to argue that today's divisions run much deeper or perhaps they are simply more visible or more emotional.
Of course, it should come as no surprise that I attribute this division to the radical agenda that has become the hallmark and defining legacy of the current White House.
Now don't misunderstand - one man's radical agenda is another's "it's about time" agenda.
But the more important questions deal with how will we bridge these competing agendas and how will we return to a time when the focus is on shared solutions, mutual sacrifices and social responsibility.
If you'll notice -- as I'm sure you have -- every story on next week's election centers on the polling data. Did a misstep cost a candidate poll points? Is the infusion of a few million late spent dollars driving the outcome of an election? Are the President's coattails pulling or dragging a candidate?
I am convinced that the polls are now being used to drive voters and impact outcomes instead of gauging an accurate reflection of voter sentiment.
To be sure, these polling biases are employed equally between the political parties.
As a not-too-casual observer of the American political process, I remain amazed with days left before the midterms that the Republicans are not talking about their agenda for the coming year with the assurance that the election outcome is inevitable.
But that gets us back to the divisions and thus, the uncertainty of next week's results.